The Kerry-Lieberman (nee Kerry-Graham-Lieberman) bill is set to be introduced tomorrow. Given all the chaos that’s surrounded it for the last few weeks, it’s worth taking a step back and taking a broad look at the current political dynamic and the chances for a successful outcome. Here’s the one-sentence summary: chances for passage are quite slim, but not as slim as generally perceived, and ironically, the path to passage now involves the bill getting stronger, not weaker. Read on.
Will it pass?
This is what everyone keeps asking me. (And everyone keeps asking everyone else.) The smart money, of course, is on No. Generally, predicting the death of major legislation is a smart move when it comes to the U.S. Senate. And after Graham’s bailing and the oil spill, lots and lots of folks are completely convinced that the coalition’s fallen apart and the bill’s dead.
I don’t necessarily disagree that the odds are against passage. But I don’t think the chances are as bad as conventional wisdom now has it — i.e., I don’t think they’re zero. (Wo0t optimism!) Put another way: I think the chances are roughly as good as they’ve ever been in the Senate: low but non-trivial.
All of D.C. is currently engaged in the seemingly intractable project of psychoanalyzing Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). What’s he thinking? What does he want? Is he in or out?
The short answer is, nobody knows for certain. Graham’s exit from the process was probably overdetermined. He was taking tons of heat from his party; his buddy McCain needed cover on immigration; he didn’t think Obama was going to do what’s necessary to push the bill; as a supporter of offshore oil drilling, he thought the BP Gulf oil disaster destroyed his Republican Attractor Beam and scuttled the bill’s chances. There’s also what people in Congressional offices delicately refer to his “personal problem” back home in South Carolina, about which the less said the better.
Long story short, he’s not coming back as a sponsor or champion of the bill. However, most people I’ve talked to think he’ll vote for it if it comes to the floor.
Is there another Republican who will step forward as the public face of the bill, a champion that will stump for, and possibly lure, other Republican votes? Uh … no. There are, however, some Republicans who are expected to vote for the bill if it goes to the floor: Snowe, Collins (unless she totally digs in her heels on her pony bill), Scott Brown, and Lemieux are the top tier, with a few longer shots like Lugar and Voinovich.
Oil spill WTF
The BP Gulf oil disaster has completely scrambled the politics of this stuff. The White House is terrified — scared they’ll be stuck with responsibility; scared their response will be seen as inadequate; and scared (believe it or not) that they’ll be seen as overreacting, shutting down all drilling and raising gas prices. No one in Congress is quite sure where public opinion will come out. And of course the spill isn’t over yet — it could get much worse!
One certain effect is that coastal state drilling opponents, who might have had a little wiggle room to compromise before, now have none. Menendez, Lautenberg, and Bill Nelson absolutely will not vote for a bill with drilling.
The smart thing would be for the bill to sim阿拉爱上海同城对对碰
For the Sparck sisters, growing up in the Arctic tundra taught them a lot more than survival skills. In fact, this expansive, unspoiled land is the inspiration behind their natural cosmetics company, ArXotica.
Triplets Michelle, Cika and Amy grew up in Chevak, a small village in southwestern Alaska, home to the Qissunamiut tribe. The settlement is surrounded by the Arctic tundra of the Yukon Kuskokwim Delta, a vast, treeless land mass that spans 65,000 square miles, and is only accessible via small plane or boat. For decades, native tribes have lived off the land and streams, harvesting unique plants and catching wild salmon, worlds away from the modern ways of the lower states.
Centuries worth of tribal knowledge led the sisters to dream of one day making something of the fruitful land they knew so well, but, as Michelle Sparck explains, it would be years later — after college, marriages and careers — that they would get the chance of a lifetime. After winning $90,000 in seed money from the Alaska Marketplace competition for their plan to bring infrastructure and economic stability back to their native village, the Sparck sisters became the faces of rural Alaskan development. “They wanted us to demonstrate that there was fruition — actual businesses being born and bred out of that program.”
Nearly seven years later, the sisters are making strides towards greater awareness — of their products and their native land.
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I love Florida. It’s my second home. I’m a Gator. I have spent a good portion of my life in this beautiful state. And it really pains me to write this.
Goodness knows the local media is looking the other way because they just don’t want to talk about it. It’s uncomfortable. Florida is in trouble and it’s coming from a number of different directions, and it’s coming fast. And all of this this really needs to see the light of day so it can all be dealt with. This is not a story about another parade or a car show. It’s about an ecosystem saying, “Ok, enough is enough. I’m out.”
I grew up in Delray Beach and the ocean there was my playground. I learned to navigate the waters there in a variety of ways. Surfing, paddle boarding, sailing, boating, snorkeling, spear fishing and just plain getting lost on the miles and miles of beautiful Florida beaches. As I travelled the state I stayed connected上海桑拿网419论坛